New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (42-47) and New York Mets (44-44) wrap up a 4-game series Monday at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’slines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-1

The Pirates lost 3-2 Sunday as +114 underdogs and 5-2 Saturday as +117 dogs after opening the series with a 14-2 rout as -137 favorites Friday — the lone Over game of the 3. The Bucs have been struggling recently as they are 3-6 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games. They are 48-41 ATS on the season, but 22-23 ATS and 21-24 SU at home.

The Mets, who are 23-19 SU on the road, have been streaky the last 2 weeks, putting together a 4-game win streak and two 2-game win streaks, while suffering a 3-game skid and a 2-game slide in the last 13 outings. New York is riding 1 of those 2-game win streaks. It is 43-35 ATS on the season but 23-18 ATS on the road.

Mets at Pirates projected starters

RHP Christian Scott vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Scott (0-2, 4.32 ERA) makes his 7th start. The rookie has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 33 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-5 loss at Washington Nationals Wednesday
• 2024 away splits: 0-1, 4.96 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2 HR, 6.1 K/9 in 3 starts
• Never faced Pirates before

Keller (9-5, 3.48 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 103 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-4 home setback to St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 4-2, 3.02 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.7 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Mets: 2-1, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 15 K in 3 starts, including W in last start vs. NY behind 7-inning, 1 run outing in 2023

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Mets at Pirates odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:56 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Pirates -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+152) | Pirates +1.5 (-184)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Mets at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PIRATES (-108).

The Pirates have been virtually unbeatable in recent outings with Keller starting, winning 8 of his last 10 starts. Pittsburgh has also been solid following a loss which it is here, having gone 25-21 after being defeated.

Meanwhile, the Mets who are 2-3 in their last 5 games, have been awful when Scott takes the hill. They are just 1-5 in his 6 starts and have lost 4 of those 5 by multiple runs.

Couple it all together and PITTSBURGH(-108) is the way to go.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no great value here. The Mets (-1.5, +152) might be plus-money on the run line, but as mentioned, they don’t win with Scott on the mound. Similarly, the Pirates (+1.5, -184) are too expensive as a run-line underdog.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Pirates are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games and are 40-45-4 O/U on the season. Pittsburgh is 2-3 O/U in Keller’s last 5 starts as well. It has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of its last 4, so its offense has struggled immensely as of late.

The Mets are also 1-3 O/U and have scored 5 or fewer runs in 5 straight and 3 or fewer in 3 of the 5. They have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of the last 4. Be warned, the Mets are 46-39-3 O/U on the season

TAKE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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